Is the notion of climate change an empty and exaggerated talk when there is extreme cold weather?

Extreme cold and big snowfalls particularly in the northern hemisphere in recent years have created huge confusion among public and climate change denials happily seized the opportunity; intentionally sowed seeds of anti-climate change sentiments in order to gain publicity. It's perhaps no wonder why many people don't want to believe in climate change and perceive the notion of climate change as an empty and exaggerated talk. Faced with this seeming contradiction, it will be worthwhile reading the research papers on public perceptions as the big freezes may [as I allude - may not] continue in coming winters. In fact, while I have been writing this piece, the East coast of USA have been hit by heavy snow storms starting Saturday 29th October 2011, one of the earliest and heaviest even before the arrival of usual winter season.

But, what climate scientists have been saying about it? There are differences in opinions and perceptions, however if you ask the question - 'if the extreme cold and snowfalls are frequently occurring due to the climate change?', then overwhelming majority of climate scientists will answer positively. According to many scientists, we are now in a negative phase of 'Arctic Oscillation*' [*Arctic Oscillation is the main driving forces behind the atmospheric pattern]. Negative Arctic Oscillation means Arctic are getting warmer and mid-latitude areas are getting cooler, therefore the clashes between high pressure over the Arctic and low pressure at the mid-latitudes lead more snowfalls. Because of this we have recently experienced harsher winters in the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes particularly in the UK and some parts of USA.

And, it is believed that global warming is linked to negative Arctic Oscillation. As the global temperature is slowly rising, this in turn makes widespread melting of snow and ice, which has explicitly been (among others) one of the strongest evidences of global warming so far. Even Richard Muller; a prominent physicist and skeptic of global warming found in his own study that world temperatures are really rising. Perhaps, he is being branded as a traitor by his fellow colleagues who have been very critical of global warming and climate change discourses but Richard Muller’s findings on global temperature rise has once again invalidated all the myths and assumptions surrounding the ‘Climate-gate’ scandals. He concluded that the land is 1.6 degrees warmer than in the 1950s. He analysed the data from the time of Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson and found no different from what the proponents of climate change and global warming have been saying for many years.

According to Tom Karl, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Centre - Extremes of precipitation are generally increasing because the planet is actually warming and more water is evaporating from the oceans, he said ‘This extra water vapour in the atmosphere then enables rain and snow events to become more extensive and intense than they might otherwise be’ (Scientific American, June 17, 2011).

According to other experts - La Nina; a periodic cooling (three-to seven-year cycle) of the surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean is also to be blamed in part for extreme cold and big snowfalls in the East coast of USA. Louis Uccellini (Director of USA government’s National Centres for Environmental Prediction); a long time weather expert said 'as the North Atlantic Oscillation has shifted into a negative phase, leaving La Nina in full control.' This periodic cooling of the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average which tends to create more precipitation in the air.

The June 2010 to May 2011 La Nina contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa (NOAA in The Australian News, September 9, 2011). Very recently, NOAA forecasters said that there are standing 50 percent chances of a secondary La Nina to follow a strong event as we had last winter. Usually the second dip is weaker than the first. Question remains, whether we are going to experience ‘Double Dip’ La Nina conditions? Well, we wouldn’t know until the winter season arrives this year. Nevertheless, we have already experienced early-season winter snow storms particularly in the East coast of USA.

In the UK, it has been so far very mild autumn temperature but the speculations are there will be a sudden hammering of heavy snowfalls around the country in the coming winter. What ever happens in the coming winter, in the midst of all contradictions, for many the real causes and effects of global warming and climate change will still be misinterpreted and misunderstood.