Monday 21 November 2011

Is the notion of climate change an empty and exaggerated talk when there is extreme cold weather?

Extreme cold and big snowfalls particularly in the northern hemisphere in recent years have created huge confusion among public and climate change denials happily seized the opportunity; intentionally sowed seeds of anti-climate change sentiments in order to gain publicity. It's perhaps no wonder why many people don't want to believe in climate change and perceive the notion of climate change as an empty and exaggerated talk. Faced with this seeming contradiction, it will be worthwhile reading the research papers on public perceptions as the big freezes may [as I allude - may not] continue in coming winters. In fact, while I have been writing this piece, the East coast of USA have been hit by heavy snow storms starting Saturday 29th October 2011, one of the earliest and heaviest even before the arrival of usual winter season.

But, what climate scientists have been saying about it? There are differences in opinions and perceptions, however if you ask the question - 'if the extreme cold and snowfalls are frequently occurring due to the climate change?', then overwhelming majority of climate scientists will answer positively. According to many scientists, we are now in a negative phase of 'Arctic Oscillation*' [*Arctic Oscillation is the main driving forces behind the atmospheric pattern]. Negative Arctic Oscillation means Arctic are getting warmer and mid-latitude areas are getting cooler, therefore the clashes between high pressure over the Arctic and low pressure at the mid-latitudes lead more snowfalls. Because of this we have recently experienced harsher winters in the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes particularly in the UK and some parts of USA.

And, it is believed that global warming is linked to negative Arctic Oscillation. As the global temperature is slowly rising, this in turn makes widespread melting of snow and ice, which has explicitly been (among others) one of the strongest evidences of global warming so far. Even Richard Muller; a prominent physicist and skeptic of global warming found in his own study that world temperatures are really rising. Perhaps, he is being branded as a traitor by his fellow colleagues who have been very critical of global warming and climate change discourses but Richard Muller’s findings on global temperature rise has once again invalidated all the myths and assumptions surrounding the ‘Climate-gate’ scandals. He concluded that the land is 1.6 degrees warmer than in the 1950s. He analysed the data from the time of Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson and found no different from what the proponents of climate change and global warming have been saying for many years.

According to Tom Karl, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Centre - Extremes of precipitation are generally increasing because the planet is actually warming and more water is evaporating from the oceans, he said ‘This extra water vapour in the atmosphere then enables rain and snow events to become more extensive and intense than they might otherwise be’ (Scientific American, June 17, 2011).

According to other experts - La Nina; a periodic cooling (three-to seven-year cycle) of the surface temperatures of the tropical Pacific Ocean is also to be blamed in part for extreme cold and big snowfalls in the East coast of USA. Louis Uccellini (Director of USA government’s National Centres for Environmental Prediction); a long time weather expert said 'as the North Atlantic Oscillation has shifted into a negative phase, leaving La Nina in full control.' This periodic cooling of the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean is cooler than average which tends to create more precipitation in the air.

The June 2010 to May 2011 La Nina contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa (NOAA in The Australian News, September 9, 2011). Very recently, NOAA forecasters said that there are standing 50 percent chances of a secondary La Nina to follow a strong event as we had last winter. Usually the second dip is weaker than the first. Question remains, whether we are going to experience ‘Double Dip’ La Nina conditions? Well, we wouldn’t know until the winter season arrives this year. Nevertheless, we have already experienced early-season winter snow storms particularly in the East coast of USA.

In the UK, it has been so far very mild autumn temperature but the speculations are there will be a sudden hammering of heavy snowfalls around the country in the coming winter. What ever happens in the coming winter, in the midst of all contradictions, for many the real causes and effects of global warming and climate change will still be misinterpreted and misunderstood. 

Thursday 3 November 2011

Cancun, Bangkok, Bonn and now in Durban!

From Cancun in 2010 to Bangkok in 2011, then Bonn and now in Durban! Once again the most eagerly anticipated United Nation's Climate Change Conference COP17/CMP7 will be held in the sunny city of Durban (28th November - 9th December 2011). The representatives from World's governments, business communities, NGO's and civic societies will get together to seek out and settle on the advancement in implementing the Kyoto Protocol agreements particularly on those which were agreed in the Bali Action Plan (COP13 in 2007) and Cancun Climate Conference (COP16 in 2010).

Negotiations on climate change agreements have been a long and bumpy road with many roadblocks, however the meetings (3rd April - 8th April 2011) in Bangkok and (7th June - 17th June 2011) in Bonn provided the platform to continue the climate talks and moving them forward to the next stage in Durban. A few agreements emerged from Bonn meetings, for example how the Adaptation Committee will be governed, their composition and what are their specific roles will be. Progress was also made on the Technological Mechanism that will help sharing the clean technology around the world in the form of a network named as 'Climate Technology Centre and Network'.

Clearly, progresses were made in Bangkok and Bonn meetings but some of the bigger issues are yet to be resolved. One of the most contentious topics has been the fate of Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012, as it will expire at the end of 2012. Canada, Japan and Russia are still reluctant to commit themselves on a second commitment period and the United States is the second largest polluters in the world is not bound by the Kyoto Protocol. From the point of view of developing countries, it has been one of the most critical issues as it contains key rules where all the signatories are obliged to quantify and monitor their greenhouse gas emissions. As the United States did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, therefore they are not obliged to respect what the protocol is asking them to do. United States has been arguing that Kyoto Protocol doesn’t allow developing countries including China (now the largest polluter in the world) to put targets on their emission cuts.

Unfortunately, there are other controversial issues during the course of pre-Durban negotiations in Bangkok and Bonn have not been reached, for example mitigation measures and legally binding agreements. So, what are we expecting from Durban meetings then? Can the world be so enthusiastic and looking forward to seeing a second commitment period for Kyoto Protocol which may or may not be agreed? I am not so enthusiastic about it because major polluters in the world will not risk their economic growth during the time of recession. In my view it’s a common misconception that improved environmental quality deteriorates economic growth; however there are growing evidences which suggest that economic growth initially deteriorates the environmental quality, and subsequently the quality of environment gets better as the countries become better off.

Let's hope for the best in Durban’s meeting as the whole world is waiting, one thing we don't want to see is the replication of Copenhagen conference (COP15 in 2009). In his own words John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK said: 'The city of Copenhagen is a crime scene tonight, with the guilty men and women fleeing to the airport. Ed Miliband [UK climate change secretary] is among the very few that come out of this summit with any credit.' It is now evident that beating global warming will require a radically different model of politics than the one on display here in Copenhagen (The Guardian, 19th December, 2009).

Even if a second commitment period for Kyoto Protocol will be reached in a last minute agreement after tough day and night negotiations, but I am yet to be convinced that world's largest polluters will reach any legally binding agreement. Nevertheless, I am excited and looking forward to seeing some positive outcomes.