Cancun, Bangkok, Bonn and now in Durban!

From Cancun in 2010 to Bangkok in 2011, then Bonn and now in Durban! Once again the most eagerly anticipated United Nation's Climate Change Conference COP17/CMP7 will be held in the sunny city of Durban (28th November - 9th December 2011). The representatives from World's governments, business communities, NGO's and civic societies will get together to seek out and settle on the advancement in implementing the Kyoto Protocol agreements particularly on those which were agreed in the Bali Action Plan (COP13 in 2007) and Cancun Climate Conference (COP16 in 2010).

Negotiations on climate change agreements have been a long and bumpy road with many roadblocks, however the meetings (3rd April - 8th April 2011) in Bangkok and (7th June - 17th June 2011) in Bonn provided the platform to continue the climate talks and moving them forward to the next stage in Durban. A few agreements emerged from Bonn meetings, for example how the Adaptation Committee will be governed, their composition and what are their specific roles will be. Progress was also made on the Technological Mechanism that will help sharing the clean technology around the world in the form of a network named as 'Climate Technology Centre and Network'.

Clearly, progresses were made in Bangkok and Bonn meetings but some of the bigger issues are yet to be resolved. One of the most contentious topics has been the fate of Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012, as it will expire at the end of 2012. Canada, Japan and Russia are still reluctant to commit themselves on a second commitment period and the United States is the second largest polluters in the world is not bound by the Kyoto Protocol. From the point of view of developing countries, it has been one of the most critical issues as it contains key rules where all the signatories are obliged to quantify and monitor their greenhouse gas emissions. As the United States did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, therefore they are not obliged to respect what the protocol is asking them to do. United States has been arguing that Kyoto Protocol doesn’t allow developing countries including China (now the largest polluter in the world) to put targets on their emission cuts.

Unfortunately, there are other controversial issues during the course of pre-Durban negotiations in Bangkok and Bonn have not been reached, for example mitigation measures and legally binding agreements. So, what are we expecting from Durban meetings then? Can the world be so enthusiastic and looking forward to seeing a second commitment period for Kyoto Protocol which may or may not be agreed? I am not so enthusiastic about it because major polluters in the world will not risk their economic growth during the time of recession. In my view it’s a common misconception that improved environmental quality deteriorates economic growth; however there are growing evidences which suggest that economic growth initially deteriorates the environmental quality, and subsequently the quality of environment gets better as the countries become better off.

Let's hope for the best in Durban’s meeting as the whole world is waiting, one thing we don't want to see is the replication of Copenhagen conference (COP15 in 2009). In his own words John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace UK said: 'The city of Copenhagen is a crime scene tonight, with the guilty men and women fleeing to the airport. Ed Miliband [UK climate change secretary] is among the very few that come out of this summit with any credit.' It is now evident that beating global warming will require a radically different model of politics than the one on display here in Copenhagen (The Guardian, 19th December, 2009).

Even if a second commitment period for Kyoto Protocol will be reached in a last minute agreement after tough day and night negotiations, but I am yet to be convinced that world's largest polluters will reach any legally binding agreement. Nevertheless, I am excited and looking forward to seeing some positive outcomes.