World aims for a global climate change deal in 2015

On 11-22 November 2013, Warsaw hosted the United Nations Climate Change Conference. After days of intense negotiations, a long-sought global climate change deal seemed to be on the horizon. It has been a long and bumpy road for many years in the international negotiations of climate change. Finally the international community (almost 200 countries) managed to reach a consensus, which would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. Perhaps, it is an optimistic view on the outcomes from the Warsaw negotiations compared to all other preceded climate change negotiations since its journey began in early 90s. But with a hopeless sigh, pessimists would more likely to argue that it’s 'too little too late' to stop global warming – ‘the chances of even slowing down got slipped out of our hands’. Whichever way we look at it, the reality is, whether we will have a deal in 2015 or not, we as a society need to prepare ourselves to face climate adversity and adapt to the inevitable consequences of the impacts of climate change.

Warsaw climate change conference ended with an appeal to all the countries working together towards a common goal to keep the world on the right track. All the governments are expected to work on a draft text for a new global climate change agreement. They will then be presented in the next ministerial-level climate conference in Peru and subsequently will formally be filled to reach a final agreement in Paris in 2015. All the countries decided to initiate their domestic preparations towards an agreement, which will come into force in 2020. In fact, countries will have some time to prepare themselves before they commit to a legally binding treaty. Technical support, advice and more frequent engagement with the ministers will be provided to those countries that would lag behind those in other countries in minimising CO2 emissions.

The general feeling that the Warsaw climate change conference was a successful one where all the countries agreed to carry forward the decisions, which were taken in 2011 in Durban Climate Change Conference (known as Durban Platform for Enhanced Action). The Durban Platform included an important message - all countries are to adopt a universal legal agreement on climate change as soon as possible, and no later than 2015. In Warsaw however, for the first time all the countries have agreed to a timeline to achieve a universal legal agreement. It is undoubtedly a big step forward in securing the consequences of breaching carbon emissions thresholds.

Other main decisions adopted in Warsaw include for example, the Warsaw International Mechanism for ‘Loss and Damage’ against the extreme weather events in order to protect vulnerable population. The Green Climate Fund and Long-Term Finance, the Warsaw Framework for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD Plus) - under the REDD Plus initiative, the latter has been backed by pledges of 280 million dollars in financing from the US, Norway and the UK.

Although some progress has been made, however a sense of failure and disappointment that drifted from it, is still hanging in the air. The outcomes on highly contentious issue ‘Loss and Damage’ were seen as avoiding the responsibilities of creating largest share of historical emissions by the industrial countries. It was proposed under the ‘Loss and Damage’ mechanism that the financial assistance would be provided to those countries that suffer from the severe weather. However all things considered, it was a very different stance what many of the developing countries had been asking for – to receive climate change compensation for the damage caused by global warming. I reckon the 'Loss and Damage' will remain to be a contentious issue in the upcoming negotiations.

I think climate change compensation is right on moral grounds but in reality it is very difficult to persuade some big countries when the total carbon emission of some emerging economies, including China, is overtaking the industrialised countries as the largest producer of greenhouse gases. Most of the industrialised countries are still trying to pull themselves out of 2008-09 global financial crisis. It is particularly unfortunate that the timing has been wrong to ask for any financial compensation. However, thankfully it was decided that the UN would set up a mechanism to deal with the 'loss and damage' caused by the climate impacts. Many critics would argue that the loss and damage mechanism was created without any real substance. Despite its ambiguous and rather shaky promises, I still think that it is small steps forward towards a new seed for future financial settlement.

However, we shouldn't claim the victory too early. In this kind of hard-bargaining negotiations where cracks between developing and developed countries could be widen any time in the coming months, particularly on the issues of ‘Loss and Damage’ and the ‘allocation of national greenhouse gas reduction responsibilities’.

In conclusion, the world aims for a global climate change deal but nothing will immediately get better for the poor and vulnerable families, communities or the countries. Maybe putting a cap on carbon emissions won’t stop global warming but having a global agreement is better than no agreement at all. Big polluters can individually declare war (like China did recently) on pollution but it will never work unless we have legally binding agreements, which eventually can lead to legal repercussions.